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Lecture 11: Cox Processes (Doubly Stochastic Poisson Processes)

Random Measure

We can generalize the definition of a point process to a random locally finite measure.

Let \(\overline{\mathcal{M}}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\) be the space of locally finite measures on \(\mathbb{R}^{d}\), and
let \(\overline{\mathscr{M}}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\) be equipped with the smallest \(\sigma\)-algebra making the maps
\(\mu \mapsto \mu(B)\) measurable for all \(B \in \mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\).

Let \((\Omega, \mathcal{A}, \mathbb{P})\) be a probability space.

Definition. A random measure \(\Psi\) on \(\mathbb{R}^{d}\) is a random element of \(\overline{\mathcal{M}}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\),
i.e., a measurable map \(\Psi : \Omega \to \overline{\mathcal{M}}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\).

As with point processes, the distribution of a random measure \(\Psi\) is determined by its finite-dimensional distributions
\((\Psi(B_{1}), \ldots, \Psi(B_{n})), \forall B_{1}, \ldots, B_{n} \in \mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\),
and by its Laplace functional: \[ L_{\Psi}(f) = \mathbb{E}\Big[e^{-\int f\, d\Psi}\Big], \qquad \text{for all measurable } f : \mathbb{R}^{d} \to \mathbb{R}_{+}. \]

Cox Processes

For \(\Lambda \in \overline{\mathcal{M}}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\), let \(\Phi_{\Lambda}\) denote a Poisson process with intensity measure \(\Lambda\).

Definition. Let \(\Psi\) be a random measure on \(\mathbb{R}^{d}\).
Then the mixture \(\Phi_{\Psi}\) is called a Cox process on \(\mathbb{R}^{d}\).

That is, conditioned on \(\Psi\), \(\Phi_{\Psi}\) is Poisson with intensity measure \(\Psi\).

Example. Let \(\Psi = \xi \Lambda\), where \(\Lambda \in \overline{\mathcal{M}}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\) and \(\xi\) is a non-negative random variable.
Then the Cox process \(\Phi_{\Psi}\) is called a mixed Poisson process.

Theorem. Let \(\Phi_{\Psi}\) and \(\Phi_{\Psi'}\) be Cox processes with directing measures \(\Psi\) and \(\Psi'\).
Then
\[ \Phi_{\Psi} \overset{d}{=} \Phi_{\Psi'} \quad \text{iff} \quad \Psi \overset{d}{=} \Psi'. \]

Stationarity of Cox Processes

Definition. A random locally finite measure \(\Psi\) is stationary if
\[ t_x \Psi \overset{d}{=} \Psi, \qquad \forall x \in \mathbb{R}^{d}. \]

Proposition. Let \(\Phi_{\Psi}\) be a Cox process directed by \(\Psi\).
Then \(\Phi_{\Psi}\) is stationary if and only if \(\Psi\) is stationary.

Proof. [Idea of the proof] \(t_x \Phi_{\Psi}\) is a Cox process directed by \(t_x \Psi\).
By the previous theorem, \[ t_x \Phi_{\Psi} \overset{d}{=} \Phi_{\Psi} \quad \Longleftrightarrow \quad t_x \Psi \overset{d}{=} \Psi, \] and thus, by the definition of stationarity,
\(\Phi_{\Psi}\) is stationary if and only if \(\Psi\) is stationary.

\(\square\)

Properties of a Cox Process

A Cox process \(\Phi_{\Psi}\) with directing measure \(\Psi \in \mathcal{M}(\mathbb{R}^{d})\) has:

Remark: Recall that for a point process \(\Phi\) with intensity measure \(\Lambda\), \[ \mathrm{Var}(\Phi(B)) = \alpha^{(2)}(B \times B) - \Lambda(B)^2 + \Lambda(B). \]

For \(\Phi\) Poisson, \[ \mathrm{Var}(\Phi(B)) = \mathbb{E}[\Phi(B)]. \]

For the Cox process \(\Phi_{\Psi}\), \[ \mathrm{Var}(\Phi_{\Psi}(B)) = \mathbb{E}[\Psi(B)^2] - \mathbb{E}[\Psi(B)]^2 + \mathbb{E}[\Psi(B)] = \mathrm{Var}(\Psi(B)) + \mathbb{E}[\Psi(B)]. \]

Therefore, \[ \mathrm{Var}(\Phi_{\Psi}(B)) \ge \mathbb{E}[\Psi(B)]. \]

Hence, the number of points in a given set has greater variability in a Cox process than in a Poisson process.

Examples

Example (Cox Processes with Random Intensity Fields). Let \(\{Y(x)\}_{x \in \mathbb{R}^{d}}\) be a non-negative stochastic process on \(\mathbb{R}^{d}\).

Define the random measure by  
$$
\Psi(B) = \int_{B} Y(x)\, dx, \qquad B \in \mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^{d}),
$$
assuming $Y$ is locally integrable a.s.

Then $\Phi_{\Psi}$ is a Cox process with random intensity field $\{Y(x)\}$.

Example (Specific Example: Log-Gaussian Cox Processes). Let \(\{Z(x)\}_{x \in \mathbb{R}^{d}}\) be a Gaussian process on \(\mathbb{R}^{d}\).
That is, for all \(x_1, \ldots, x_n \in \mathbb{R}^{d}\), \[ (Z(x_1), \ldots, Z(x_n)) \] are Gaussian random vectors, and its distribution is determined by the mean function
\[ \mu(x) = \mathbb{E}[Z(x)] \] and covariance function
\[ C(x,y) = \mathrm{Cov}(Z(x), Z(y)). \] Now define the random measure \(\Psi\) by
\[ \Psi(B) = \int_{B} e^{Z(x)}\, dx, \qquad B \in \mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^{d}). \]

The Cox process $\Phi_{\Psi}$ is called a *Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP)*.

(Coerrolly, Møller, Waagepetersen, 2016) showed that for a stationary LGCP $\Phi$ with underlying Gaussian process  
$\{Z(x)\}_{x \in \mathbb{R}^{d}}$, the reduced Palm version  
$
\Phi_{\Psi}^{0,!} := \Phi^{0} - \delta_{0}
$
is a LGCP with underlying Gaussian process $\{Z_{0}(x)\}_{x \in \mathbb{R}^{d}}$, where  
$
Z_{0}(x) = Z(x) + C(0,x),
$
and $C$ is the covariance function of $\{Z(x)\}_{x \in \mathbb{R}^{d}}$.
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